The Shaobing Song (烧饼歌, "Sesame Flatbread Song") is a prophetic text traditionally attributed to Liu Bowen (Liu Ji, 1311-1375), the founding strategist of the Ming dynasty. Liu Ji, courtesy name Bowen, hailed from Qingtian in Zhejiang province. A master of astronomy, military strategy, and divination, he helped Zhu Yuanzhang establish the Ming dynasty and was hailed as the dynasty's foremost advisor — often compared to Zhuge Liang in popular lore.
Legend has it that one day Emperor Zhu Yuanzhang was eating a sesame flatbread (shaobing) in his private chamber when he suddenly summoned Liu Bowen. The emperor hid the half-eaten flatbread under a bowl and asked Liu to guess what was inside. Liu calculated on his fingers and replied: "Half like the sun, half like the moon, once bitten by a golden dragon — a piece is missing." Delighted by the correct answer, the emperor then asked Liu to prophesy the fate of the dynasty, thus beginning their famous prophetic dialogue.
The text is written as a dialogue: Zhu Yuanzhang poses questions, and Liu Bowen answers in cryptic verse, prophesying major events in Chinese history from the Ming dynasty onward. The Shaobing Song is regarded as one of China's three great prophetic texts, alongside the Tui Bei Tu and the Maqian Ke. However, its authenticity and date of composition remain hotly debated among scholars — some believe the surviving text was revised and supplemented over the centuries. This site presents the original text with verification analysis for reference.
Core Message
"Half like the sun, half like the moon, once bitten by the golden dragon — a piece is missing." — Opening of the Shaobing Song
Prologue — Emperor eats a flatbread; Liu Bowen guesses correctlyJingnan — Prophecy of Prince Yan seizing the throneTumu Crisis — Prophecy of Emperor Yingzong's capture and Yu Qian's defenseChuang Wang — Prophecy of Li Zicheng toppling the MingManchu Conquest — Prophecy of the Qing dynasty entering ChinaTaiping Rebellion — Prophecy of Hong Xiuquan's uprisingFinale — Prophecy of universal harmony
Original text sourced from folk-transmitted manuscripts of the Shaobing Song; authenticity and date of composition remain debated (Wikipedia )
Some 'verified' passages may have been added or modified retroactively
Verification based on historical records and public sources; editorial opinions do not represent academic consensus
Site icon: Shaobing (sesame flatbread) motif — from the opening scene where Emperor Zhu was eating a flatbread, the most recognizable cultural symbol of the Shaobing Song
Shaobing Song Prophecies All Prophecies 17 Q&A entries in total
The Emperor asked: What of the affairs of the realm? Does the master know what is in the bowl?
刘伯温: Half like the sun, half like the moon, once bitten by the golden dragon — a piece is missing. In your humble servant's view, it is a sesame flatbread beneath the bowl.
Vernacular translation: This thing is half like the sun and half like the moon, with a piece bitten off by the golden dragon (the Emperor). In my judgment, the object hidden beneath the bowl is a sesame flatbread.
The Emperor asked: Our Great Ming rules all under heaven — what of its fate?
刘伯温: Our Great Ming unifies the world; the south is subdued, the north ultimately follows. The legitimate heir is indeed the rightful prince, yet beware: a literary star rises high in the west.
Vernacular translation: The Ming dynasty unifies all under heaven — the south pacified and the north ultimately consolidated. The legitimate crown prince is the rightful heir, but one must beware of a star of literary brilliance rising in the western direction.
The Emperor asked: Who is this person? What upheaval will there be?
刘伯温: From this city the imperial chariot marches forth in person; the realm finds peace under 'Eternal Joy.' A bald-headed man enters the literary court; half the heroes return to their homelands.
Vernacular translation: From this city the emperor personally leads his troops on campaign; the realm is pacified during the Yongle reign. A bald-headed man enters the court of scholars; half the heroes retire and return home.
The Emperor asked: What happens after the Yongle era?
刘伯温: Northern barbarians ravage lives; the emperor marches forth in person to restore peace. Ministers who miscalculated dare not remonstrate; the old testament's instructions go unheeded.
Vernacular translation: Northern barbarians ravage the people; only the emperor's personal campaign restores peace. Officials who misjudged dare not speak up; the late emperor's dying wishes are not diligently followed.
The Emperor asked: What follows after the Tumu Crisis?
刘伯温: The great general marches south with fearless valor, a gleaming saber slung at his waist. Wind-beaten drums shake mountains and rivers; lightning-lit banners fly as high as sun and moon.
Vernacular translation: The great general campaigns with bold courage, wearing a gleaming saber at his waist. Wind-driven war drums shake the mountains and rivers; banners flash in the lightning, soaring high as the sun and moon.
The Emperor asked: Is the realm at peace thereafter?
刘伯温: When the realm suffers cold and hunger, strange things occur; a man of dragon virtue rides upon the infant. He roams freely through the vast Forbidden City; only when the golden dragon grows up does peace return.
Vernacular translation: When famine and cold grip the land, strange events unfold — a man of dragon virtue exploits the young emperor's infancy. He roams freely through the vast Forbidden City; peace returns only when the golden dragon comes of age.
The Emperor asked: What comes after?
刘伯温: This old fool did not know heaven's term was so short; warfare was undertaken for the sake of peace. A thousand-year wish-fulfilling pearl; the barbarians on all four sides are each destroyed.
Vernacular translation: This old man did not realize how short heaven's allotted time was; military campaigns were waged to achieve lasting peace. A wish-fulfilling pearl lasting a thousand years; enemies on all four borders are each vanquished.
The Emperor asked: What of my descendants who shall rule after me?
刘伯温: Remove the middle stroke from 'chuan' and pass the realm on; spring grain changes the sun overhead. The monkey bathes in a basin while the rooster chases the deer; trouble comes when the pig is encountered.
Vernacular translation: Removing the center stroke from 'chuan' (串) yields 'huan' (患, worry) — the realm shall face troubles. The spring crop sees a new sun (dynastic change); the monkey rules in the basin, the rooster chases the deer, and trouble comes when the pig is met.
The Emperor asked: What are the signs of the Ming's fall?
刘伯温: Ten thousand sons and grandsons layer upon layer; upon the ancestral mountain they walk in shell-cloth. Dukes and lords no longer attend the golden court; eighteen children face difficulties upon difficulties.
Vernacular translation: Countless descendants pile up in layers; upon the ancestral foundation they walk in humble garb. Nobles no longer attend the golden court; the eighteen children face hardship upon hardship.
The Emperor asked: What of the eighteen children? Who shall rule the realm next?
刘伯温: Beneath the tree a stroke completes the head; above the eye, a blade and 'wu-ding.' The realm values writing over warfare; heroes and champions find no spring.
Vernacular translation: Decomposing the characters yields 'Li Zi Cheng' (李自成). The realm values civil over military arts; heroes and champions all meet unhappy ends.
The Emperor asked: After Li Zicheng, who rules the realm?
刘伯温: Wielding a steel blade ninety-nine times, they slaughter until no barbarians remain. Cannon smoke obscures the road ahead; heaven dims and earth transforms — a new era dawns.
Vernacular translation: Steel blades are wielded ninety-nine times in war, fighting until every barbarian is vanquished. Cannon smoke obscures the way forward; in the dimming of heaven and upheaval of earth, dynasties change.
The Emperor asked: How shall the realm fare under barbarian rule?
刘伯温: Water floods the moon palace — the ruler stands; grain and tree together depart. For twenty years smoke covers the land; one crowned head sits in the center of heaven.
Vernacular translation: 'Water flooding the moon palace' encodes the character 'Qing' (清). After the Qing is established and the ruler ascends, twenty years of warfare fill the land with smoke before one crowned head finally sits secure upon the throne.
The Emperor asked: What is the fate of the Qing dynasty?
刘伯温: One, two, three, four, five, six, seven — half the realm rests in their hands. Roosters and dogs rise to dance together; eight directions descend into war, each fighting for dominance.
Vernacular translation: One through seven (missing 'eight,' hinting at ruin) — half the realm is in their grasp. Petty men of roosters and dogs rise together to make trouble; on all eight sides, warlords fight for supremacy.
The Emperor asked: What becomes of China after this?
刘伯温: A horned head sweeps with a duster; the great ocean's waters flow and connect. One man becomes the world's great blessing; dragons and snakes gallop forth — there is no road back.
Vernacular translation: A horned head (hinting at the concept of 'president') sweeps away the old order with a duster; ocean routes connect across the world. One great man brings blessing to the world; in the year of dragons and snakes, a sweeping transformation from which there is no return.
The Emperor asked: What follows after the Republic?
刘伯温: The sun falls into the water and waves subside; from here the realm sees much dispute. Grand reforms cannot change the course; red flowers cover the land and the people unite.
Vernacular translation: The sun sinks into the water and the waves cease (Japan's surrender); the realm is then full of disputes and conflicts. Sweeping reforms cannot alter the course; red flowers blanket the land as the people unite in harmony.
The Emperor asked: What of the realm after the red flowers?
刘伯温: Orioles sing and phoenixes dance as a new dynasty emerges; all under heaven share one heart and one nest. Through ten thousand ages this prophecy remains; white clouds become grey dogs — change reaches the ends of the earth.
Vernacular translation: Orioles sing and phoenixes dance to welcome a new era; all the people unite as one family. This prophecy shall endure through countless ages; yet the world is ever-changing, like white clouds that shift into grey dogs, transforming endlessly across the horizon.
The Emperor asked: Has the master any final words?
刘伯温: Before and after, the succession is unbroken; through the ages, sages shall always appear. Heaven's secrets must not be revealed too freely; let those with destiny verify them in their own time.
Vernacular translation: The succession continues without end; across countless ages, sages and worthies will always arise. The secrets of heaven must not be disclosed too freely; let those who are destined discover and verify them on their own.
Prophecy Verification Evaluating predictions against reality for expired time points
The Emperor asked: Our Great Ming rules all under heaven — what of its fate?
刘伯温: Our Great Ming unifies the world; the south is subdued, the north ultimately follows. The legitimate heir is indeed the rightful prince, yet beware: a literary star rises high in the west.
Vernacular translation: The Ming dynasty unifies all under heaven — the south pacified and the north ultimately consolidated. The legitimate crown prince is the rightful heir, but one must beware of a star of literary brilliance rising in the western direction.
The 'legitimate heir' refers to the Jianwen Emperor Zhu Yunwen, grandson of Crown Prince Zhu Biao. 'A literary star rises high — beware the west' hints at the threat from Prince of Yan Zhu Di, whose fief was in Beiping (northwest of Nanjing), who later launched the Jingnan Campaign to seize the throne.
The Emperor asked: Who is this person? What upheaval will there be?
刘伯温: From this city the imperial chariot marches forth in person; the realm finds peace under 'Eternal Joy.' A bald-headed man enters the literary court; half the heroes return to their homelands.
Vernacular translation: From this city the emperor personally leads his troops on campaign; the realm is pacified during the Yongle reign. A bald-headed man enters the court of scholars; half the heroes retire and return home.
'Eternal Joy' directly names the Yongle era (1402-1424) of Emperor Zhu Di. 'A bald-headed man' alludes to the monk Dao Yan (Yao Guangxiao), the key strategist behind the Jingnan Campaign. 'Half the heroes return home' refers to Zhu Di's purge of Jianwen-era officials after seizing power.
The Emperor asked: What happens after the Yongle era?
刘伯温: Northern barbarians ravage lives; the emperor marches forth in person to restore peace. Ministers who miscalculated dare not remonstrate; the old testament's instructions go unheeded.
Vernacular translation: Northern barbarians ravage the people; only the emperor's personal campaign restores peace. Officials who misjudged dare not speak up; the late emperor's dying wishes are not diligently followed.
'Northern barbarians' refers to the Oirat (Mongol) invasion. 'Imperial campaign' refers to Emperor Yingzong's ill-fated personal campaign at the urging of eunuch Wang Zhen, which led to his capture at the Tumu Crisis of 1449. 'Ministers who miscalculated dare not remonstrate' refers to Wang Zhen's autocratic power and officials' inability to oppose the campaign.
The Emperor asked: What follows after the Tumu Crisis?
刘伯温: The great general marches south with fearless valor, a gleaming saber slung at his waist. Wind-beaten drums shake mountains and rivers; lightning-lit banners fly as high as sun and moon.
Vernacular translation: The great general campaigns with bold courage, wearing a gleaming saber at his waist. Wind-driven war drums shake the mountains and rivers; banners flash in the lightning, soaring high as the sun and moon.
This passage alludes to Yu Qian's heroic defense after the Tumu Crisis. After Emperor Yingzong's capture, Yu Qian installed the Jingtai Emperor and organized the defense of Beijing, repelling the Oirat forces and stabilizing the Ming dynasty. Yu Qian was later unjustly executed when Yingzong was restored to power.
The Emperor asked: Is the realm at peace thereafter?
刘伯温: When the realm suffers cold and hunger, strange things occur; a man of dragon virtue rides upon the infant. He roams freely through the vast Forbidden City; only when the golden dragon grows up does peace return.
Vernacular translation: When famine and cold grip the land, strange events unfold — a man of dragon virtue exploits the young emperor's infancy. He roams freely through the vast Forbidden City; peace returns only when the golden dragon comes of age.
This passage alludes to eunuch dominance in mid-Ming politics. 'Rides upon the infant' refers to eunuchs seizing power during young emperors' reigns, such as Liu Jin's autocracy during the Zhengde era. 'When the golden dragon grows up, peace returns' refers to the Jiajing Emperor's ascension and restoration of order.
The Emperor asked: What comes after?
刘伯温: This old fool did not know heaven's term was so short; warfare was undertaken for the sake of peace. A thousand-year wish-fulfilling pearl; the barbarians on all four sides are each destroyed.
Vernacular translation: This old man did not realize how short heaven's allotted time was; military campaigns were waged to achieve lasting peace. A wish-fulfilling pearl lasting a thousand years; enemies on all four borders are each vanquished.
This passage alludes to the Jiajing-Wanli period (1521-1620), when the Ming fought Japanese pirates and border threats. Generals like Qi Jiguang defeated the Japanese raiders; 'barbarians on all sides destroyed' refers to the pacification of both the southeastern pirate menace and northern Mongol threats.
The Emperor asked: What of my descendants who shall rule after me?
刘伯温: Remove the middle stroke from 'chuan' and pass the realm on; spring grain changes the sun overhead. The monkey bathes in a basin while the rooster chases the deer; trouble comes when the pig is encountered.
Vernacular translation: Removing the center stroke from 'chuan' (串) yields 'huan' (患, worry) — the realm shall face troubles. The spring crop sees a new sun (dynastic change); the monkey rules in the basin, the rooster chases the deer, and trouble comes when the pig is met.
This passage alludes to late-Ming political chaos from the Wanli to Tianqi periods. 'Monkey in the basin' hints at the Wanli Emperor (born in a Monkey year); 'rooster chases the deer' refers to the Tianqi era when eunuch Wei Zhongxian seized power. Political turmoil from Wanli to Chongzhen ultimately led to the Ming's fall.
The Emperor asked: What are the signs of the Ming's fall?
刘伯温: Ten thousand sons and grandsons layer upon layer; upon the ancestral mountain they walk in shell-cloth. Dukes and lords no longer attend the golden court; eighteen children face difficulties upon difficulties.
Vernacular translation: Countless descendants pile up in layers; upon the ancestral foundation they walk in humble garb. Nobles no longer attend the golden court; the eighteen children face hardship upon hardship.
'Eighteen children' combines to form the character 'Li' (李, ten + eight + child), alluding to Li Zicheng. In 1644, Li Zicheng captured Beijing, the Chongzhen Emperor hanged himself, and the Ming dynasty fell. 'Lords no longer attend the golden court' refers to the scattering of officials at the dynasty's end.
The Emperor asked: What of the eighteen children? Who shall rule the realm next?
刘伯温: Beneath the tree a stroke completes the head; above the eye, a blade and 'wu-ding.' The realm values writing over warfare; heroes and champions find no spring.
Vernacular translation: Decomposing the characters yields 'Li Zi Cheng' (李自成). The realm values civil over military arts; heroes and champions all meet unhappy ends.
This passage uses character decomposition to spell out 'Li Zicheng' (李自成). Li Zicheng established the Shun dynasty in 1644, captured Beijing and overthrew the Ming, but ruled for only 42 days before being defeated by the combined forces of the Qing army and Wu Sangui. 'Heroes find no spring' refers to the brevity of his reign.
The Emperor asked: After Li Zicheng, who rules the realm?
刘伯温: Wielding a steel blade ninety-nine times, they slaughter until no barbarians remain. Cannon smoke obscures the road ahead; heaven dims and earth transforms — a new era dawns.
Vernacular translation: Steel blades are wielded ninety-nine times in war, fighting until every barbarian is vanquished. Cannon smoke obscures the way forward; in the dimming of heaven and upheaval of earth, dynasties change.
This passage alludes to Wu Sangui inviting the Qing (Manchu) army through Shanhai Pass. 'Ninety-nine' hints at the character 'bai' (白, hundred minus one), referencing the Manchu homeland of 'white mountains and black waters.' The Qing army entered China in 1644 and waged prolonged campaigns against the Southern Ming and peasant armies before unifying the country.
The Emperor asked: How shall the realm fare under barbarian rule?
刘伯温: Water floods the moon palace — the ruler stands; grain and tree together depart. For twenty years smoke covers the land; one crowned head sits in the center of heaven.
Vernacular translation: 'Water flooding the moon palace' encodes the character 'Qing' (清). After the Qing is established and the ruler ascends, twenty years of warfare fill the land with smoke before one crowned head finally sits secure upon the throne.
Character decomposition encodes the dynasty name 'Qing' (清). After entering China, the Qing spent roughly twenty years fighting (1644-1662 against the Southern Ming) before pacifying the Three Feudatories and recovering Taiwan to unify the country. 'One crowned head sits in heaven's center' indicates the Qing emperor's secure rule.
The Emperor asked: What is the fate of the Qing dynasty?
刘伯温: One, two, three, four, five, six, seven — half the realm rests in their hands. Roosters and dogs rise to dance together; eight directions descend into war, each fighting for dominance.
Vernacular translation: One through seven (missing 'eight,' hinting at ruin) — half the realm is in their grasp. Petty men of roosters and dogs rise together to make trouble; on all eight sides, warlords fight for supremacy.
'One through seven' missing 'eight' implies the dynasty's eventual doom. 'Half the realm' refers to the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom occupying half of China (1851-1864). 'Roosters and dogs dance together' alludes to various factions rising in the chaos. 'Eight directions at war' refers to the constant uprisings across late-Qing China.
The Emperor asked: What becomes of China after this?
刘伯温: A horned head sweeps with a duster; the great ocean's waters flow and connect. One man becomes the world's great blessing; dragons and snakes gallop forth — there is no road back.
Vernacular translation: A horned head (hinting at the concept of 'president') sweeps away the old order with a duster; ocean routes connect across the world. One great man brings blessing to the world; in the year of dragons and snakes, a sweeping transformation from which there is no return.
This passage alludes to the Xinhai Revolution and the founding of the Republic of China. 'Horned head' hints at 'president.' 'Ocean waters flow and connect' refers to modern China's opening to trade. The Xinhai Revolution (1911) overthrew the Qing dynasty and established the Republic; 'no road back' means the imperial system could not be restored.
The Emperor asked: What follows after the Republic?
刘伯温: The sun falls into the water and waves subside; from here the realm sees much dispute. Grand reforms cannot change the course; red flowers cover the land and the people unite.
Vernacular translation: The sun sinks into the water and the waves cease (Japan's surrender); the realm is then full of disputes and conflicts. Sweeping reforms cannot alter the course; red flowers blanket the land as the people unite in harmony.
'Sun falls into water' alludes to Japan's defeat and surrender (1945 — 'sun' sinks into water). 'Much dispute in the realm' refers to the Chinese Civil War after WWII. 'Red flowers cover the land, people unite' alludes to the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, with the red flag covering the mainland.
The Emperor asked: What of the affairs of the realm? Does the master know what is in the bowl?
刘伯温: Half like the sun, half like the moon, once bitten by the golden dragon — a piece is missing. In your humble servant's view, it is a sesame flatbread beneath the bowl.
Vernacular translation: This thing is half like the sun and half like the moon, with a piece bitten off by the golden dragon (the Emperor). In my judgment, the object hidden beneath the bowl is a sesame flatbread.
This is the prologue of the Shaobing Song. Liu Bowen correctly guessed that the object hidden under the emperor's bowl was a half-eaten sesame flatbread, setting the stage for the prophetic dialogue.
The Emperor asked: What of the realm after the red flowers?
刘伯温: Orioles sing and phoenixes dance as a new dynasty emerges; all under heaven share one heart and one nest. Through ten thousand ages this prophecy remains; white clouds become grey dogs — change reaches the ends of the earth.
Vernacular translation: Orioles sing and phoenixes dance to welcome a new era; all the people unite as one family. This prophecy shall endure through countless ages; yet the world is ever-changing, like white clouds that shift into grey dogs, transforming endlessly across the horizon.
The Emperor asked: Has the master any final words?
刘伯温: Before and after, the succession is unbroken; through the ages, sages shall always appear. Heaven's secrets must not be revealed too freely; let those with destiny verify them in their own time.
Vernacular translation: The succession continues without end; across countless ages, sages and worthies will always arise. The secrets of heaven must not be disclosed too freely; let those who are destined discover and verify them on their own.
This is the closing of the Shaobing Song. Liu Bowen ends with 'heaven's secrets must not be revealed too freely,' echoing the Tui Bei Tu's 'better to push the back and retire.' Both express the prophet's stance of knowing when to stop and not revealing too much of heaven's plan.