William Miller (February 15, 1782 – December 20, 1849) was an American Baptist lay preacher and one of the most influential apocalyptic prophets in 19th-century America. A War of 1812 veteran turned farmer, he spent over a decade intensively studying the Bible before publicly announcing his findings in 1831.
Miller based his calculations on Daniel 8:14 — 'Unto two thousand and three hundred days; then shall the sanctuary be cleansed.' Interpreting the '2,300 days' as 2,300 years and starting from 457 BC, he calculated that Christ would return to Earth around 1843. His method of biblical interpretation caused a sensation, attracting 50,000 to 100,000 followers in what became known as the Millerite movement.
October 22, 1844, was fixed by his followers as the definitive date of Christ's return. When the day passed without incident, tens of thousands of believers were plunged into despair. This event, known as 'The Great Disappointment,' remains the most famous prophetic failure in American religious history. Yet the movement did not die — remnant believers reinterpreted the prophecy, eventually giving rise to the Seventh-day Adventist Church and other denominations.
Core Message
"I believe that the second coming of Jesus Christ is near, even at the door, even within twenty-one years — on or before 1843."
1816 — Miller begins systematic Bible study, comparing scripture verse by verse1818 — Arrives at preliminary conclusion: Christ will return around 18431831 — First public sermon in Dresden, New York, preaching the imminent end1840 — Ottoman Empire prophecy appears fulfilled, Millerite movement surgesMarch 21, 1843 – March 21, 1844 — Miller's predicted window for Christ's returnOctober 22, 1844 — 'The Great Disappointment': final date passes, prophecy fails
Prophecies compiled from Miller's own writings and Millerite movement historical literature (Wikipedia: William Miller )
Great Disappointment reference (Wikipedia: Great Disappointment )
Millerite movement reference (Wikipedia: Millerism )
Verification based on historical records and academic research
Site icon: open book with hourglass — symbolizing Miller's lifelong pursuit of calculating the end times through intensive Bible study
William Miller Prophecies All Prophecies 13 Q&A entries in total
Core calculation of the 2,300-day prophecy
William Miller: Based on Daniel 8:14 — 'Unto two thousand and three hundred days; then shall the sanctuary be cleansed' — interpreting 'days' as 'years' and counting 2,300 years from 457 BC (the decree of Artaxerxes to rebuild the Jerusalem temple), Miller concluded that Christ would return around 1843 to cleanse the world by fire.
The Seventy Weeks calculation
William Miller: Daniel 9:24-27's 'Seventy Weeks' (490 years), counted from 457 BC, reaches AD 33 — precisely matching the traditional date of Christ's crucifixion. Miller used this to validate 457 BC as the correct starting point, thereby supporting the reliability of his 2,300-year calculation.
March 21, 1843 – March 21, 1844: the window for Christ's return
William Miller: Miller predicted Christ would return during Jewish year 5803 (March 21, 1843 to March 21, 1844). He declared: 'I am fully convinced that sometime between March 21st 1843 and March 21st 1844, according to the Jewish mode of computation of time, Christ will come.'
April 18, 1844: revised date for Christ's return
William Miller: After March 21, 1844 passed, Millerites recalculated using the Karaite Jewish calendar and set April 18, 1844 as the new date for Christ's return.
October 22, 1844: the final date of 'The Great Disappointment'
William Miller: Millerite follower Samuel S. Snow proposed the 'Seventh Month Movement,' recalculating the Day of Atonement as October 22, 1844, declaring it the definitive date of Christ's return. Miller himself accepted this calculation near the date. Tens of thousands of believers sold possessions, abandoned crops, and waited outdoors for Christ's descent from heaven.
Prophecy of the Ottoman Empire's fall
William Miller: Millerite preacher Josiah Litch, interpreting Revelation 9:15, predicted that the Ottoman Empire would lose its independent sovereignty on August 11, 1840. He calculated the scriptural 'an hour, a day, a month, and a year' as 391 years and 15 days, counting from 1449.
The world will end in fire
William Miller: Miller predicted that at Christ's return, the world would be cleansed by fire. Based on 2 Peter 3:10 — 'the day of the Lord will come as a thief in the night; in which the heavens shall pass away with a great noise, and the elements shall melt with fervent heat' — the Earth would be destroyed in a supernatural conflagration and remade as a new heaven and new earth.
The dead shall rise from their graves
William Miller: Based on 1 Thessalonians 4:16-17, Miller proclaimed that at Christ's return, the righteous dead of all ages would first rise from their graves, then living believers would be caught up together with them in the clouds to meet the Lord and remain with Him forever.
The saints shall be raptured into heaven
William Miller: Miller predicted that at the moment of Christ's return, true believers would be 'raptured' — meeting Christ in the air, their bodies instantly transformed into immortal, glorified forms, forever freed from earthly suffering. He urged followers to be ever ready lest they miss this glorious moment.
Signs of the end: celestial phenomena
William Miller: Miller interpreted the Leonid meteor storm of November 13, 1833 (tens of thousands of meteors per hour streaking across the night sky) as fulfillment of Matthew 24:29 — 'the stars shall fall from heaven' — and cited it as a sign of Christ's imminent return. He also referenced the 'New England Dark Day' of May 19, 1780 (when the daytime sky suddenly darkened) as evidence of 'the sun being darkened.'
Interpretation of Daniel's four empires
William Miller: Miller interpreted the visions of Daniel chapters 2 and 7 as four successive world empires: Babylon (head of gold) → Persia (chest of silver) → Greece (belly of bronze) → Rome (legs of iron). After the fourth empire (Rome) divided into ten kingdoms, God would establish an eternal heavenly kingdom — the moment of Christ's return.
Rise and fall of papal power
William Miller: Based on Daniel 7:25 and Revelation 13:5, Miller calculated papal rule as lasting 1,260 years ('a time, times, and half a time' = 3.5 years = 1,260 day-years). Counting from AD 538 (when the Eastern Roman Empire defeated the Ostrogoths and the Pope gained temporal power) to 1798 (when Napoleon's General Berthier arrested Pope Pius VI) yields exactly 1,260 years. Miller cited this as proof of the reliability of biblical time prophecies.
Miller's final conviction: Christ's return will still come
William Miller: After the Great Disappointment, Miller acknowledged his date calculations were wrong but never abandoned his belief that Christ's return was imminent. He wrote in 1845: 'Although I have been twice disappointed, I am not yet cast down or discouraged... I have fixed my mind upon another time, and here I mean to stand until God gives me more light — and that is Today, TODAY, and TODAY.'
Prophecy Verification Evaluating predictions against reality for expired time points
Rise and fall of papal power
William Miller: Based on Daniel 7:25 and Revelation 13:5, Miller calculated papal rule as lasting 1,260 years ('a time, times, and half a time' = 3.5 years = 1,260 day-years). Counting from AD 538 (when the Eastern Roman Empire defeated the Ostrogoths and the Pope gained temporal power) to 1798 (when Napoleon's General Berthier arrested Pope Pius VI) yields exactly 1,260 years. Miller cited this as proof of the reliability of biblical time prophecies.
Both AD 538 and 1798 are real historical dates: the Eastern Roman Empire did defeat the Ostrogoths in 538, and General Berthier did arrest Pius VI in 1798. The 1,260-year interval is factually correct. However, defining these specific events as the precise 'start' and 'end' of papal power is an oversimplification — the rise and fall of papal authority was a gradual process, not events datable to exact years. Furthermore, the papacy did not end in 1798 and continues to this day.
Prophecy of the Ottoman Empire's fall
William Miller: Millerite preacher Josiah Litch, interpreting Revelation 9:15, predicted that the Ottoman Empire would lose its independent sovereignty on August 11, 1840. He calculated the scriptural 'an hour, a day, a month, and a year' as 391 years and 15 days, counting from 1449.
On July 15, 1840, Britain, Russia, Prussia, and Austria signed the Treaty of London intervening in Ottoman affairs. The Ottoman Empire accepted European mediation in early September. While the date and details did not precisely match (the empire did not fall on August 11), Litch's followers claimed vindication, greatly boosting the Millerite movement. Historians consider this 'fulfillment' a selective reading of complex diplomatic events.
Core calculation of the 2,300-day prophecy
William Miller: Based on Daniel 8:14 — 'Unto two thousand and three hundred days; then shall the sanctuary be cleansed' — interpreting 'days' as 'years' and counting 2,300 years from 457 BC (the decree of Artaxerxes to rebuild the Jerusalem temple), Miller concluded that Christ would return around 1843 to cleanse the world by fire.
Christ did not return in 1843. Miller's original time window was March 21, 1843 to March 21, 1844 (Jewish calendar year), during which no supernatural events occurred.
The Seventy Weeks calculation
William Miller: Daniel 9:24-27's 'Seventy Weeks' (490 years), counted from 457 BC, reaches AD 33 — precisely matching the traditional date of Christ's crucifixion. Miller used this to validate 457 BC as the correct starting point, thereby supporting the reliability of his 2,300-year calculation.
The 490-year calculation from 457 BC to AD 33 does align with most scholars' estimates for the crucifixion. However, this only validates the starting point, not the interpretive method of equating 'days' with 'years.' The day-year principle remains widely disputed in biblical scholarship.
The world will end in fire
William Miller: Miller predicted that at Christ's return, the world would be cleansed by fire. Based on 2 Peter 3:10 — 'the day of the Lord will come as a thief in the night; in which the heavens shall pass away with a great noise, and the elements shall melt with fervent heat' — the Earth would be destroyed in a supernatural conflagration and remade as a new heaven and new earth.
No supernatural fire or apocalyptic event occurred on Earth during 1843-1844. The world continued as normal.
The dead shall rise from their graves
William Miller: Based on 1 Thessalonians 4:16-17, Miller proclaimed that at Christ's return, the righteous dead of all ages would first rise from their graves, then living believers would be caught up together with them in the clouds to meet the Lord and remain with Him forever.
No observable resurrection of the dead occurred during 1843-1844. This prediction was a supernatural claim entirely unsupported by observable reality.
The saints shall be raptured into heaven
William Miller: Miller predicted that at the moment of Christ's return, true believers would be 'raptured' — meeting Christ in the air, their bodies instantly transformed into immortal, glorified forms, forever freed from earthly suffering. He urged followers to be ever ready lest they miss this glorious moment.
No rapture occurred during 1843-1844. On the night of the 'Great Disappointment,' believers waited outdoors until dawn — no one ascended.
Signs of the end: celestial phenomena
William Miller: Miller interpreted the Leonid meteor storm of November 13, 1833 (tens of thousands of meteors per hour streaking across the night sky) as fulfillment of Matthew 24:29 — 'the stars shall fall from heaven' — and cited it as a sign of Christ's imminent return. He also referenced the 'New England Dark Day' of May 19, 1780 (when the daytime sky suddenly darkened) as evidence of 'the sun being darkened.'
The 1833 Leonid meteor storm and the 1780 New England Dark Day were real historical events. However, modern science provides natural explanations: the meteor storm was caused by the debris trail of Comet Tempel-Tuttle, and the Dark Day resulted from massive forest fire smoke combined with cloud cover. These celestial events did occur, but were not supernatural signs.
Interpretation of Daniel's four empires
William Miller: Miller interpreted the visions of Daniel chapters 2 and 7 as four successive world empires: Babylon (head of gold) → Persia (chest of silver) → Greece (belly of bronze) → Rome (legs of iron). After the fourth empire (Rome) divided into ten kingdoms, God would establish an eternal heavenly kingdom — the moment of Christ's return.
The historical interpretation of four successive empires (Babylon, Persia, Greece, Rome) broadly aligns with mainstream history and most biblical scholars — this reading was not original to Miller. However, the logical leap from 'Rome divided into ten kingdoms' to 'Christ will return in 1843' lacks sufficient basis.
March 21, 1843 – March 21, 1844: the window for Christ's return
William Miller: Miller predicted Christ would return during Jewish year 5803 (March 21, 1843 to March 21, 1844). He declared: 'I am fully convinced that sometime between March 21st 1843 and March 21st 1844, according to the Jewish mode of computation of time, Christ will come.'
March 21, 1844 passed without Christ's return. Miller acknowledged possible errors in his calculation but maintained his belief that the Second Coming was imminent.
April 18, 1844: revised date for Christ's return
William Miller: After March 21, 1844 passed, Millerites recalculated using the Karaite Jewish calendar and set April 18, 1844 as the new date for Christ's return.
April 18, 1844 also passed uneventfully, with no supernatural events. This was the second date revision failure for the Millerite movement.
October 22, 1844: the final date of 'The Great Disappointment'
William Miller: Millerite follower Samuel S. Snow proposed the 'Seventh Month Movement,' recalculating the Day of Atonement as October 22, 1844, declaring it the definitive date of Christ's return. Miller himself accepted this calculation near the date. Tens of thousands of believers sold possessions, abandoned crops, and waited outdoors for Christ's descent from heaven.
October 22, 1844 passed without incident. Tens of thousands of believers experienced profound psychological trauma in what became known as 'The Great Disappointment.' Follower Henry Emmons recorded: 'We wept, and wept, till the day dawn.' This remains the largest-scale prophetic failure in American religious history.
Miller's final conviction: Christ's return will still come
William Miller: After the Great Disappointment, Miller acknowledged his date calculations were wrong but never abandoned his belief that Christ's return was imminent. He wrote in 1845: 'Although I have been twice disappointed, I am not yet cast down or discouraged... I have fixed my mind upon another time, and here I mean to stand until God gives me more light — and that is Today, TODAY, and TODAY.'